Domestic demand during the September-October peak season has yet to materialize, SHFE tin may maintain a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) settled at 272,610 yuan/mt, down 1.16% (a drop of 3,200 yuan) from the previous settlement price, with intraday fluctuations between 271,540-279,010 yuan/mt. The morning session continued to show sideways movement in the doldrums. Meanwhile, the three-month LME tin contract traded at $34,875/mt, edging down 0.21%, supported by tight overseas inventories.

Growing expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September (probability exceeding 80%) pushed the US dollar index lower, providing temporary support for metal prices. However, domestic demand during the September-October peak season has yet to materialize, and policy transmission to the real economy faces time lags. Market confidence remains weak in traditional consumption sectors such as home appliances and real estate chains. Additionally, Sino-US trade tensions and Indonesia's RKAB export license policy adjustment (shortened to one year) have heightened supply chain uncertainties, dampening bullish sentiment.

SHFE tin is expected to maintain sideways movement within the 265,000-275,000 yuan/mt range in the short term. If LME inventories decline further this afternoon or the US dollar index weakens, prices may test the resistance level of 273,000 yuan. Conversely, if Myanmar ore shipments rebound or downstream restocking remains sluggish, prices could retreat to the support level of 268,000 yuan.